Quarterly Outlooks Page

The U.S. economy grew 2.1% in 2022 according to revised estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The fourth quarter 2.7% growth rate followed rates of 3.2%, -0.58%, and -1.63% in the prior quarters. The largest contributor to fourth quarter growth was inventory investment. Final Sales of...

Real GDP grew at a 2.9% rate in the third quarter of 2022 due largely to a lower trade deficit. Consumer spending cooled in the third quarter but preliminary data suggests that consumers will post stronger end of year spending. Consumer spending is now fueled by increased credit card debt and...

The U.S. economy shrank 1.5% in the first quarter of 2022 following growth of 6.9% in the fourth quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth for the second quarter is likely to be positive but may fall below 1%. There is talk of a pending recession later in the year but very...

Third quarter 2021 GDP growth was only 2.1% following 6.7% growth in the second quarter, according to the revised Bureau of Economic Analysis announcement. Most of third quarter growth came from inventory accumulation while consumer spending was unusually weak with only 1.8% growth. Fiscal...

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U. S. economy grew in real terms at an annualized rate of 6.34% in the first quarter of 2021 following a 4.33% rate in the fourth quarter. The implicit price deflator used to adjust nominal GDP for inflation was 4.07%, representing robust price...

The COVID recession in first half of 2020 was the shortest but most severe downturn in history with a 31.4% decline in GDP in the second quarter. The third quarter began with a resurgence of the virus as the economy reopened on a limited basis. Still, revised third quarter growth was an...

A severe recession due to COVID-19 is underway. While the worst of the recession is likely to be felt in the second quarter, there are many uncertainties going forward. The self-imposed lockdown of the economy is easing, but there is no guarantee that the virus will wane or that a vaccine will...

The U. S. economy grew at a 2.1% pace in the third quarter, based on the revised estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Second quarter growth was 2%. In the third quarter, consumer spending continued to drive GDP growth with only modest contributions by government spending. Net private...

The economy grew at a 3.1% rate in the first quarter despite headwinds from the government shutdown, weak consumer spending, delays in tax refunds, and a stock market slump. Growth exceeded analyst forecasts by a wide margin. Some of the second quarter’s growth may have bled into the first...